Rupee strengthened against its major trading partners last week taking cues from upbeat domestic & global market sentiments, weakness in the dollar index, & continuous dollar inflows by the FIIs.
FOMC announced a third $10 billion reduction to quantitative easing, reducing its monthly bond purchases to $55 billion & keeping with Fed watchers’ tapering exceptions. The Fed will cut monthly mortgage bond purchases to $25 billion from $30 billion. Treasury purchases will drop to $30 billion a month from $35 billion.
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen suggested interest rate hikes would happen approximately six months after quantitative easing ends.
FIIs bought securities worth net Rs. 3438.35 crores in the cash & derivatives segment of the Indian equity markets on Friday.
India’s foreign exchange reserves rose $1.838 billion in a single week to March 14 as overseas investors poured in funds to buy stocks & bonds in local markets on hopes that a stable government.
The forex reserves stood at $297.287 billion at the end of that week. Foreign currency assets for the week rose $1.842 billion to $269.814 billion. Reserves in gold remained unchanged at $20.978 billion.
USD INR
Rupee gained 0.62 percent against the dollar in futures on Friday & closed at 61.0700. The spot rate is currently at 60.89.
The dollar index traded below the psychologically crucial 80-mark for most of the week yet closed above at 80.1160.
Comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen hinting a rise in the interest rates in the near future pushed the US 10 Yr bond yields higher which after a near 4.8% fall last week, gained nearly at a similar pace & currently standing near 2.77% mark.
In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 61.41 while the three-month was at 62.14.
Overall, we expect rupee to trade on a neutral note against the dollar due to lack of any major economic data touch points on Monday. Slight strength in the dollar index may cap large gains in the rupee due to upbeat domestic market sentiment. High FII inflows on Friday are likely to assist rupee maintain its gains in the past week. Some volatility can be expected ahead of expiry this week.
Technical Outlook:
As seen on the daily chart, USDINR is trailing at the support in the 61.10-61.00 range since the past many days. Any significant move will be seen if it breaches this level on the downside or bounces upwards. 61.75 is an significant resistance on the upside while 60.80 is a crucial support level for the counter below which it will head towards the 60.50 mark.
EUR INR
In the futures rupee gained 0.41 percent against the Euro & closed at 84.1800 on Friday. The spot rupee closed at 84.01.
Euro zone current account rose unexpectedly to a seasonally adjusted Euro 25.3 billion, from 20.0 billion in the preceding month whose figure was revised down from 21.3 billion.
ECB officials in their comments lately have specified the need for a lower euro, as the region being an export oriented economy should continue to cap any kind of positivity in the shared currency even due to external factors like a sharp & unexpected fall in the dollar index.
Overall we expect the rupee to trade on a neutral to positive note against the Euro due to upbeat domestic market sentiments & improving economic scenario in India. However, positive economic data from the Euro zone may cap sharp gains in the INR.
Technical Outlook:
As seen on the daily chart, EURINR is taking support at the down sloping trend line of the channel near the 84.10 mark. If it bounces upwards from this level then 84.90 is a crucial resistance while on the downside, 83.80 is an significant support.
GBP INR
In the futures rupee gained 0.65 percent against the GBP on Friday & closed at 100.7475. The spot rupee closed at 100.38.
UK public sector net borrowing was £7.5bn in February, less than forecasts for £7.8bn & up on January’s revised £6.8bn.
The GBP/USD continued to ease to trade at 1.65 on Friday yet was not able to capitalize on the downward pressure on the US dollar.
Overall, we expect rupee to trade on a neutral to positive note against the pound due to international weakness in pound.
Technical Outlook:
As seen on the daily chart, GBPINR has breached the support at 100.95 mark & closed below it. It is likely that the counter will head downwards where 100.24 is a crucial support.
JPY INR
In the futures rupee gained 0.45 percent against Yen, & closed at 59.6900 on Friday. The spot rate of JPY INR is currently at 59.55.
Japan passed its biggest-ever budget, a 95.88 trillion yen (S$1.2 trillion) spending package aimed at propping up growth as consumers brace themselves for the country’s first sales tax hike in over 15 years. The new budget comes as Tokyo pushes for speedy implementation of a US$50 billion stimulus package specially designed to protect Japan’s fragile economic recovery.
We expect rupee to trade on a neutral to positive note against the Yen due to international weakness in Yen & increased spending by the Japanese government.
Technical Outlook:
As seen on the intraday chart, JPINR has closed below the support at 59.72. It is likely that the counter will head downwards where 58.89 is an significant support. On the upside, 60.07 is a crucial resistance for the counter.
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http://research4u.co.in/intraday_stock_commodity_tips/currency-trading-technical-report-24-march/
FOMC announced a third $10 billion reduction to quantitative easing, reducing its monthly bond purchases to $55 billion & keeping with Fed watchers’ tapering exceptions. The Fed will cut monthly mortgage bond purchases to $25 billion from $30 billion. Treasury purchases will drop to $30 billion a month from $35 billion.
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen suggested interest rate hikes would happen approximately six months after quantitative easing ends.
FIIs bought securities worth net Rs. 3438.35 crores in the cash & derivatives segment of the Indian equity markets on Friday.
India’s foreign exchange reserves rose $1.838 billion in a single week to March 14 as overseas investors poured in funds to buy stocks & bonds in local markets on hopes that a stable government.
The forex reserves stood at $297.287 billion at the end of that week. Foreign currency assets for the week rose $1.842 billion to $269.814 billion. Reserves in gold remained unchanged at $20.978 billion.
USD INR
Rupee gained 0.62 percent against the dollar in futures on Friday & closed at 61.0700. The spot rate is currently at 60.89.
The dollar index traded below the psychologically crucial 80-mark for most of the week yet closed above at 80.1160.
Comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen hinting a rise in the interest rates in the near future pushed the US 10 Yr bond yields higher which after a near 4.8% fall last week, gained nearly at a similar pace & currently standing near 2.77% mark.
In the offshore non-deliverable forwards, the one-month contract was at 61.41 while the three-month was at 62.14.
Overall, we expect rupee to trade on a neutral note against the dollar due to lack of any major economic data touch points on Monday. Slight strength in the dollar index may cap large gains in the rupee due to upbeat domestic market sentiment. High FII inflows on Friday are likely to assist rupee maintain its gains in the past week. Some volatility can be expected ahead of expiry this week.
Technical Outlook:
As seen on the daily chart, USDINR is trailing at the support in the 61.10-61.00 range since the past many days. Any significant move will be seen if it breaches this level on the downside or bounces upwards. 61.75 is an significant resistance on the upside while 60.80 is a crucial support level for the counter below which it will head towards the 60.50 mark.
EUR INR
In the futures rupee gained 0.41 percent against the Euro & closed at 84.1800 on Friday. The spot rupee closed at 84.01.
Euro zone current account rose unexpectedly to a seasonally adjusted Euro 25.3 billion, from 20.0 billion in the preceding month whose figure was revised down from 21.3 billion.
ECB officials in their comments lately have specified the need for a lower euro, as the region being an export oriented economy should continue to cap any kind of positivity in the shared currency even due to external factors like a sharp & unexpected fall in the dollar index.
Overall we expect the rupee to trade on a neutral to positive note against the Euro due to upbeat domestic market sentiments & improving economic scenario in India. However, positive economic data from the Euro zone may cap sharp gains in the INR.
Technical Outlook:
As seen on the daily chart, EURINR is taking support at the down sloping trend line of the channel near the 84.10 mark. If it bounces upwards from this level then 84.90 is a crucial resistance while on the downside, 83.80 is an significant support.
GBP INR
In the futures rupee gained 0.65 percent against the GBP on Friday & closed at 100.7475. The spot rupee closed at 100.38.
UK public sector net borrowing was £7.5bn in February, less than forecasts for £7.8bn & up on January’s revised £6.8bn.
The GBP/USD continued to ease to trade at 1.65 on Friday yet was not able to capitalize on the downward pressure on the US dollar.
Overall, we expect rupee to trade on a neutral to positive note against the pound due to international weakness in pound.
Technical Outlook:
As seen on the daily chart, GBPINR has breached the support at 100.95 mark & closed below it. It is likely that the counter will head downwards where 100.24 is a crucial support.
JPY INR
In the futures rupee gained 0.45 percent against Yen, & closed at 59.6900 on Friday. The spot rate of JPY INR is currently at 59.55.
Japan passed its biggest-ever budget, a 95.88 trillion yen (S$1.2 trillion) spending package aimed at propping up growth as consumers brace themselves for the country’s first sales tax hike in over 15 years. The new budget comes as Tokyo pushes for speedy implementation of a US$50 billion stimulus package specially designed to protect Japan’s fragile economic recovery.
We expect rupee to trade on a neutral to positive note against the Yen due to international weakness in Yen & increased spending by the Japanese government.
Technical Outlook:
As seen on the intraday chart, JPINR has closed below the support at 59.72. It is likely that the counter will head downwards where 58.89 is an significant support. On the upside, 60.07 is a crucial resistance for the counter.
Read More
http://research4u.co.in/intraday_stock_commodity_tips/currency-trading-technical-report-24-march/